The prognosis for the Canadian economy is a mixed one.
“When you talk to people, some are still fearful and some are still cautious but very optimistic,” says Ardi Ghorashy, PMP, PgMP, partner, 80/20 Consulting Inc., Markham, Ontario, Canada.
Since the global recession began, Canada has suffered some serious blows. In March, the country saw a 52 percent jump in the number of bankruptcies filed by consumers and businesses over the year before.
And in many ways, the country’s fate lies in the hands of others. A full recovery in Canada depends largely on how quickly its close trading partners—many of which are in serious trouble—are able to recover.
As the United States goes, so goes Canada, which could make for some rough times, says Beata Caranci, director of economic forecasting at TD Economics, an economic performance analysis group and part of Toronto, Ontario, Canada-based TD Bank Financial Group.
“If people are looking for a return to happy days, I think they may be disappointed because we're going to be into a period of slow growth,” she told the Toronto Star in May.
Canadian exports are expected to decline this year by 22 percent, the country’s worst performance in history, according to Export Development Canada. Slowing sectors such as energy and automotive—with drops of nearly 39 percent and 35 percent respectively—are the major culprits behind the decline.
That spells trouble for some project managers.
“What I am seeing is that the resource-savvy companies are trying to keep the management layers lean and thin, instead of fat cash consuming less productive management structures,” says Arvind Pal Singh, senior business analyst in Winnipeg, Ontario, Canada.
One example is Telus, Canada’s largest telecom company, which cut more than 1,100 full-time equivalent jobs in the first quarter of 2009. At the same time, however, it has set aside CA$2.05 billion this year for capital projects—the most in eight years—to help build its next-generation wireless network.
Projects may still get approved, but management is taking a far more cautious approach even though the cost of capital is relatively low, Mr. Ghorashy says. “We see that on whether it’s a particular project being approved or whether you are going out on a big bid, and it is taking much longer to actually qualify those bids and make a selection,” he says. “We find many projects are using this as an opportunity to negotiate harder for better prices, especially on services, and this is acting as a market pricing corrections for services that had become inflated during better economic times.”
There are some glimmers of hope.
In April, for example, Canada posted an unexpected increase of 35,900 jobs. In June, the Paris, France-based think tank Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development listed Canada as one of four industrialized countries having reached a bottom in the economic downturn.
And the latest IT Hiring Index and Skills Report by Robert Half Technology, released in June, named project management the number one job area experiencing growth amongst IT professionals in Canada.
Mr. Ghorashy says he is still seeing a lot of opportunity for project managers in western Canada, especially Vancouver, British Columbia where project managers are in demand at a higher-than-normal rate due to the abundance of projects stemming from the 2010 Winter Olympics.
The Canadian province of Saskatchewan is also booming. In 2008, it posted the best performance in exports, retail sales, wholesale trade, building permits and capital investment. And some experts are predicting it to be the only province in the country to grow in 2009. But no matter the economic state, there are still projects that must go on, says John Estrella, PMP, a management consultant in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
“Wherever there are opportunities for increasing revenue or reducing costs, there are always opportunities for project management—whether we are in a recession or not,” he says.
