Expert observations to help practitioners and organizations prepare for the future

To survive now and thrive later, project managers have to consider social and cultural trends.

Project managers don't always pay much attention to demographics, economics, socio-cultural issues and other macro-environmental factors.

But maybe they should, according to Kam Jugdev, PhD, PMP, co-author of the chapter "Future Trends in Project Management: A Macro-Environmental Analysis," in the new book Project Management Circa 2025 [PMI, 2009].

Armed with that information, project managers at all levels can make predictions about the future that could feed into their decision-making on everything from budget cuts to where to look for work.

"If you want to be more future-oriented, look at current trends for some of the growing niche areas where future project management opportunities might be," she says.

"[For example], healthcare, leisure, hospitality and travel-related projects for the aging population. [And] more of the [younger] generations may want to work on projects that support their environmental values that relate, for example, to our carbon footprint."

In the chapter she co-authored with Ralf Müller and Maureen Hutchison, Dr. Jugdev suggests that to assess the prime factors affecting the future of project management, you need to first understand how they affect us today.

To do that, the authors suggest using the DEPEST framework, following trends in demographic, economic, political-legal, ecological, socio-cultural and technological environments.

The chapter explores predictions from eight colleagues on how these factors will affect project management.

For example, an approaching shift in demographics points to potential projects in a variety of sectors.

"With baby boomers' growing need for healthcare and leisure activities, there will be a tremendous growth of construction projects for hospitals, retirement homes and nursing homes, as well as projects that involve hospitality, travel, second-home development and entertainment," the authors write.

And as ecological factors continue to garner attention, the number of projects launched in such areas as alternative energy and water management will increase.

Taking Cultural Cues

Looking into the future, Ms. Jugdev says project managers are also going to be increasingly aware and respectful of diversity and cultural matters on projects. This knowledge of multiculturalism will then help them to work more effectively with one other.

In particular, she says, project managers should be ready to collaborate with increasingly educated populations in such rapidly emerging countries like India and China, as well as Turkey, Brazil, Vietnam and Iran where economic trends indicate that more women are pursuing further education.

Executives should also be following such macro-environmental trends, she says, so they can support their staff, for example, through corporate strategies and services like diversity and expatriate training.

An Educated Solution

Schools and associations alike could play a role in helping project managers see the big picture.

"Our hope is that project management associations and educators will move beyond the project management bodies of knowledge to address broader learner-based outcomes," the authors write.

This could include a growth of more industry-specific certifications like health care project management, Dr. Jugdev says.

She envisions engaging students earlier in project management education-for example, through coursework at the high school level and more courses at the college level.

By examining the main factors the profession faces, Ms. Jugdev hopes simply to start a dialogue. And if project managers-and the companies they work for-address these trends today, she believes, they will ultimately become more competitive tomorrow.