Project Management Institute

Risk management by expert systems

Because traditional risk management models do not fully incorporate empirical knowledge, most of these systems--developed based on mathematical models--ignore the creative component involved in managing risk. This article describes a method of using expert systems (decision-support programs containing a large body of knowledge from field experts) to resolve the difficulties associated with traditional risk management models. In doing so, it explains the benefits of using an integrated expert system in risk management and details a process for developing this system, one that involves identifying risks, describing goals, allocating risk, evaluating risk (using fuzzy set theory to compose fuzzy variables of uncertainty), and planning risk response.
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