Beware risk number 11
Identifying risks is never a simple task, and it can be made immeasurably more difficult by the perceptual barriers within our organizations and ourselves. This article discusses how too much risk planning can lead to complacency: When a team believes it has identified all the major risks with the appropriate risk-response plans in place, it can become too proud of its work. It describes how project professionals build top-10 lists of risks only to be set back by "risk number 11." It then explains the "boiled frog" concept--a mortal risk, rising gradually enough, can fail to penetrate our perceptual defences and is thus recognized too late, if at all--and provides an example. If, as some claim, the essence of project management is risk management, it all begins with risk identification.