Decision analysis in projects

modeling techniques - part 1

Decision analysis enables intelligent choices to be made under conditions of uncertainty. Business prediction utilizes one of three approaches: guessing or using intuition, extrapolating the past, or using a system model to generate a forecast. This article discusses various modeling techniques and describes how to develop a valid model that reflects project behavior under varying conditions. In project management, a work breakdown structure (WBS) usually provides the analysis from which a model can be developed. Influence diagrams, computer-generated models, and rule-of-thumb expert systems are other ways of using deterministic project models to generate predictions for different outcome scenarios.
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