Project Management Institute

Don't Gamble With Uncertainty

A Monte Carlo Analysis Helps Project Teams Go Beyond Risk Management

One of the first things project managers learn is that we must understand and manage risks if we want to drive our projects to success. But focusing on risks alone often isn't enough—uncertainties also must be gauged. At Thales Alenia Space, Europe's largest satellite manufacturer, our project professionals use the Monte Carlo analysis to measure uncertainties. The analysis provides the answer to the fundamental question: What is the probability that our project will be completed on time and within budget? This statistical approach helps increase our ability to control the project's outcome and deliver a successful project.
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