The performance measurement baseline--a statistical view

The difference between quantifiable risk and blind uncertainty is often the margin between success and failure in project management. The purpose of this paper is to provide the project manager with a statistical perspective to the development of the Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB) and ultimately to the statistical assessment of schedule variance. Understanding the statistical properties of the PMB adds another arrow to the project manager's information quiver. Two vantage points have been taken: Time-centric and Task-centric. The Time-centric view provides the tools for constructing a PMB confidence interval, vital for assessing the statistical significance of schedule variances. The Task-centric view quantifies the probability of a given level of earned value at any data date. This information broadens the options available for project risk assessment.
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