Project schedule risk analysis
Monte Carlo simulation or PERT?
Schedule risk analysis can help project managers identify and mitigate risks and achieve a better project outcome. A popular method of schedule risk analysis that was introduced in the 1950s is the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), based on the Method of Moments (MOM). While PERT provides a good approximation of risk when a project has only one path, it should not be used to analyze risk in schedules that have more than one parallel path because it underestimates the extra risk that occurs at path convergence points.Since almost all real projects have multiple paths, Monte Carlo simulation should be the preferred analysis method.