The Science of Uncertainty
Blown Budgets and Destroyed Schedules? Sometimes, It's Weak Project Estimation That's to Blame
Project estimates can sometimes take on a life of their own. The budget for the new international arrivals facility being built at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport in Seattle, Washington, USA was originally estimated at US$300 million in 2013. But as the project unfolded, the estimated budget needed to complete the work swelled to US$608 million in 2015—and then to US$968 million by September 2018.