Abstract
In software or product development projects, the Schedule Chicken game occurs when two or more product teams claim they can meet an unrealistic early delivery date, assuming or hoping the schedule estimates of other team(s) are even more unrealistic than theirs. Unfortunately, the Schedule Chicken game has no winners, because all product teams end up being part of the losing project team. This paper explains how to detect the presence of a Schedule Chicken game on your project, and how to remedy the situation so product teams can work together to achieve a realistic early delivery date.
Introduction
The first time I heard the expression “playing schedule chicken” I didn't know what it meant. My friend, Chris, who was a manager of software development at a major telecommunications company at the time, explained the “game” to me and I immediately realized that I had seen this game played out many times before on our development projects. It is similar to the “Chicken Game” where two players try to outlast each other by continuing on a dangerous path (such as driving a car at top speed toward each other) and hope the other player will “chicken out” first and steer away before a spectacular collision occurs. The first player to steer away or jump out of the car is labeled a “chicken,” while the other player wins bragging rights. The game of Schedule Chicken is slightly different in that the collision is replaced by great schedule slippage and the game usually involves more than two players. Schedule Chicken is often played when two or more teams (or sub-teams) on a project avoid admitting their deadlines are unattainable, with each team hoping another team will admit failure first. As another point of reference, my recent search on Wikipedia, the free online encyclopedia, returned this result:
The concept of “Schedule Chicken” is used in project management and software development circles. The condition occurs when two or more areas of a product team claim they can deliver features at an unrealistically early date because each assumes the other teams are stretching the predictions even more than they are. This pretense continually moves forward past one project checkpoint to the next until feature integration begins or just before the functionality is actually due.
The practice of “Schedule Chicken” often results in contagious schedules slips due to the inner team dependencies and is difficult to identify and resolve, as it is in the best interest of each team not to be the first bearer of bad news.
After I heard Chris’ definition and listened to his story about how his major project is woefully behind schedule, I realized that I too had been the victim of this Schedule Chicken game on many failed software projects. And, although I hate to admit it, I realized at that moment that I had also been a player of this game before.
Symptoms of Schedule Chicken in Play
One of the most spectacular project failures I had experienced was a software development project in the 1990s involving cutting-edge new technology that would transform our software product to meet new market demands and new performance standards. After we re-tooled all our developers with many hours of training in the technology, our leader put a stake in the ground declaring our release date (project deadline) to be 18 months later, a specific date in the following year. A strange pattern emerged on this project that became the source of many whispers around the water cooler.
What was the pattern? The project schedule was updated weekly, and all would be well for a few months with no major issues. Then, when our leader was out of the office on a week-long business trip, the project manager would announce major setback that delayed the project by a few months. Our leader would get this upsetting news by telephone so that the project manager would not have to endure a lengthy face-to-face interrogation and disapproving talks. When the leader returns from his business trip he would have calmed down and mentally accepted the project delay. Then the cycle would repeat itself: all would be well for a few months with no signs of trouble on the weekly schedule reports, that is, until the leader went on a week-long business trip again. This pattern occurred about four times on this particular project, and the project was finally completed about two years late.
I can recall at least two other projects with similar patterns; unfortunately both of these multimillion-dollar projects were cancelled after a few years of development, with dire consequences for the managers and key staff members. What I realized later was that the teams on each of these projects were engaged in the game of Schedule Chicken! Because of new technology, aggressive deadlines, and fear of being identified as the cause of project failure, each team waited for another team to confess their schedule delays, until finally one team couldn't hide their problem any longer and would choose a convenient time to break the bad news. The project schedule appears to be exactly on track for awhile, but then suddenly experiences a massive schedule delay—not by days but rather by weeks/months. Once the bad news got announced and one of the teams is labeled as the culprit for the delay, the project deadline is officially extended and all teams would breathe a sigh of relief. And then, the Schedule Chicken game would start all over again.
It was actually a relief to learn from Chris that there is a name for this addicting game and we were not alone. Since then I have noticed that all types of delayed projects also exhibited some evidence of this Schedule Chicken game; it is not reserved for just software development projects. If you have noticed any of the symptoms like my examples above, you too were probably an unsuspecting player or a victim of the Schedule Chicken game. Because it is such a common occurrence, this paper is part catharsis, part intervention, and part public service announcement—it exposes the types of players you may meet on your projects, the symptoms and some strategies for winning (i.e., for project schedule success).
Identifying the Players
It has been said that the only way to win the game is to refuse to play. However, it is too easy for the other teams on the project to continue to play the game without you—so your project will still suffer the consequences of Schedule Chicken. The real solution, to make sure the project wins, is to make sure that none of the teams on your project is playing the Schedule Chicken game. To that end, we must understand what motivates the players and how to adjust the project environment so their motivations can be shifted to the “right” behavior. We begin that understanding by first figuring out who we are dealing with—i.e., to identify the players. Below is a list of players you are likely to see in the game.
The “Novice” Chicken
This unsuspecting player is usually a relatively new member or an unwilling accomplice on one of the project's teams or sub-teams. He or she does not know that Schedule Chicken game is in play, and may inadvertently expose the fact that there is no way his or her team can meet the next schedule milestone or deadline. Their managers do not want you to ask these chickens any questions, for fear of exposing their schedule delays. When these players are present, the best strategy for winning is to create open forums to talk to the Novice Chickens about their project challenges. Note that it may be necessary to give them amnesty so they can speak freely, and it is important to ensure no negative personal consequences will result from their disclosure.
The “Chicken Little”
These players keep announcing that the sky is falling (or cry wolf, if that is a better metaphor for you) so often that unfortunately no one heeds their warnings of schedule delays. They not only cry about their own team's challenges with meeting the deadlines, they also speculate about every other team's ability to meet their deadlines. Note that none of the other players like Chicken Little because he or she makes everyone look bad. Although no one likes his or her approach, there are usually some element of truth in their stories, and it is up to you to decipher whether these truths are real causes for concern. If these players are present, you can validate their wolf cries with the Novice Chickens and the Eternal Optimist Chickens described below.
The “Eternal Optimist” Chicken
These players are liked by all the other players, except perhaps an occasional stereotypical Chicken Little. The Eternal Optimist calms the Novice by explaining that the challenges can be overcome by the team and things are not as bad as they seem. The Eternal Optimist Chicken tells Chicken Little that all will turn out fine and not to believe in conspiracy theory. The Eternal Optimist Chicken may be in denial part of the time, and may be spot on some of the time. Challenge his or her assumptions about how the teams’ challenges can be overcome—you may get some good ideas or it will at least be a good start to brainstorming solutions. You can educate these players about the importance of early warning signals in a project, and how they can contribute to success if they can openly communicate challenges and proactively brainstorm solutions. If the schedule estimates were too optimistic for the early stages of a project, chances are great that they will be even more unrealistic for later stages of the project.
The “Hawk”
The Hawk, you guessed it, eats all the other chickens. The Hawk believes in pure survival of the fittest. He believes the only acceptable outcome is one that leaves everyone else crying (I know, not eaten) while he walks away a hero. The Hawk is an expert player of the game, and he or she is never the first one who confesses his schedule delays. The Hawk will be very offended if you even suggest that his or her team will not meet the deadline. He or she believes that the other teams are at least as bad if not worse off, so the Hawk never accepts the blames for schedule delays. The Hawk patiently waits for someone else to confess their delays and quietly enjoys the schedule relief granted for the whole project. You have to establish a clear reward system for them to be better team players and to disclose their schedule delays early. The rewards can motivate Hawk players to redirect their killer instincts and not invest as much energy into the Schedule Chicken game. If this approach doesn't work, you must be prepared to do without them on your projects.
The “Harmonizer”
Actually, this one is not a player in the game. That's who you'd have to be, to save the project schedule. By now you realize that I have stereotyped the project team members into categories when it comes to confessing schedule challenges. The fact is a team member can behave like more than one type of player, depending on the project and its circumstances. You will have to identify the type of player you are dealing with, as the player morphs from one type to the next. You will need your charm as well as do your research, to rally all the players around disclosing and mitigating all the challenging issues they are facing. Let's talk about the tools at your disposal to increase your chances for success.
Tools for Winning the Game
As mentioned previously, it is not enough for one player or one project team to refuse to play the game of Schedule Chicken. The real way to win the game for the project is to get the entire project team to forfeit this game. Although each player may exhibit different behaviors during the game, you must first accept that all players have a desire to avoid blame for any project failure. If your project environment has a blame culture, Schedule Chicken will be played by everyone. Therefore, you must establish some ground rules for the “right” behaviors, and rewards for exhibiting these behaviors to improve probability of project success. On the flip side, to avoid massive schedule delays, you will need to educate the players so they can identify misbehaviors and recognize symptoms of Schedule Chicken. You have to create a cooperative environment, give the project members applicable tools, and incentivize them to use the tools for the project's benefit.
The project team must understand the anticipated benefits of completing their project, i.e., what their project is expected to deliver for the organization, sponsor, shareholders, or community. They must first be motivated by delivering these benefits, to want to deliver the project within scope and on schedule. So the first order of business is to make sure that everyone understands the project goals and how important the project is to the organization or community. Once the team understands the project goals, make sure they understand that protecting the project is higher in priority than protecting an individual team's success. For example you may want to establish a bonus structure that clearly places more monetary rewards on completing the entire project on time and within scope, instead of rewarding each team for completing their piece of the project. This will increase team work, driving everyone to achieve a common goal of protecting the project schedule and deliverables.
To increase the likelihood of a happy ending for your project and its schedule, the target (or baseline) schedule should be both realistic and aggressive. To that end, the original schedule estimates must be supported by the team, not some magic end date that the project sponsor demanded. The team should be given the task to discuss and quantify uncertainty in their planned tasks and allowed to build in schedule buffers which are transparent (no hidden slack) and supported by the project teams. The estimates for their work should reflect reality, e.g., if they are not allotted full time to this project the estimates should reflect some loss in productivity. If resources are shared by more than one project, the project plan should account for shared resource availability throughout the organization instead of assuming full time allocation to one project. Ideally, multi-tasking between tasks and projects should be avoided, and resources should be focused on critical tasks. These recommendations are based on the fundamental requirements of Critical Chain scheduling methodology, which has merit for all types of projects utilizing knowledge workers as primary resources.
Schedule Chicken is also played when team leaders or resource managers hope that their schedule delays can be absorbed by “float” or schedule buffers that are available in a later phase of the project, essentially hoping that the project schedule will work itself out. In reality, projects where the delays are concealed will take much longer to complete, compared to projects where the team leaders or resource managers are honest about delays. This has been shown statistically by a study of 700 major US Department of Defense contracts—a study that justified the requirement of Earned Value Management on significant government projects. The study showed that if a project is in trouble (i.e., experiencing cost and schedule variances) as early as 15% into a project, it will not be completed as planned. If your project estimates are not accurate for the early phase(s) of the project, the estimates will be even more inaccurate in the later phases of the project. The study also showed that project overrun (negative variance) at completion will not be less than the overrun that occurred as early as 15% into the project. Educating your project team on this statistically proven fact will make it more comfortable for them to communicate project challenges early.
Project team members must learn that hiding a schedule delay in the early stage of the project is futile because it most probably cannot be recovered in a later stage. By communicating the problems early, they should actually be rewarded for exposing the early warning signs so that management can make go/no-go decisions related to project scope, and/or increase funding and resources to crash the project schedule. These early warnings allow the project team and sponsors to have the difficult conversations earlier, build strong relationships, and collectively find acceptable solutions to make up the time. When problems are exposed too late, there will be fewer options to make up the schedule slippage. Be sure to create a forum where it is comfortable to discuss problems openly, such as regularly scheduled meetings that acknowledge team members for discussing obstacles in their project work, and for brainstorming solutions collectively.
Most important, you must maintain an environment of trust because one of the key motivators for playing Schedule Chicken is to avoid the wrath of senior management. To build interpersonal trust, you must demonstrate consistency between your actions and the stated goals, desired behaviors from team members, and the reward systems you have created. If you are inconsistent in any way, project team members will resort to playing the Schedule Chicken game by concealing problems in order to (albeit temporary) reduce the likelihood that senior management will intervene. You can only change this behavior by rewarding open communication about problems, and by ensuring that senior management will not shoot the messenger (nor the project team) when problems are revealed. If you can be completely transparent, your projects may tend to suffer from delays early in the schedule, but it forces your teams to have the difficult conversations earlier, build strong relationships, and they will tend to find ways to get back on track.
Summary
Because the Schedule Chicken game has no winners, we must get the entire project team to forfeit this game. Otherwise, while some winners may appear to be heroes as a result of expertly playing the Schedule Chicken game, the entire project team loses. If you have detected the symptoms of Schedule Chicken being played on your project(s), you can identify and deal with the different types of game players, then use the appropriate tools to turn them into protectors of your project schedule. The tools are a combination of project management education (e.g., understanding the best practices of earned value and critical chain) and team work (e.g., environment of trust, effective communication channels, alignment of organization goals, rewards system to incentivize proper behavior). Use these tools to persuade your project team to forfeit the Schedule Chicken game on your project(s), and watch how effectively the team can work together to achieve a realistic early delivery date.